544
FXUS65 KVEF 221812
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1012 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light scattered showers will persist across the region this
  morning before shower activity becomes isolated in the afternoon
  and evening, with increased chances of occasional lightning
  strikes.

* As a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific,
  expect warming temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoons
  through Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.

Wrap-around precipitation lingers longer into the weekend with each
model run. The closed low that has brought rain to the region over
the last few days will continue to push eastward through the day
today, resulting in scattered light rain through the morning and
isolated light rain through the afternoon and evening. With cloud
cover ongoing through the afternoon, instability will be quite
limited; however, high resolution guidance indicates that the
isolated shower activity in the afternoon and evening could produce
an occasional lightning strike with moderate rain rates at times.
Best chances of thunderstorms exist across the lower Colorado River
Valley and southern Mohave County, with 10% chances or less
extending into Clark and San Bernardino counties. On Sunday, the
majority of the forecast area should experience mostly sunny skies,
though persistent isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out in Mohave
County as the center of the low pushes through central Arizona.

Temperatures areawide moderate toward seasonal normals through the
remainder of the weekend and start of next week as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Temperatures
peak on Thanksgiving Day, with afternoon high temperatures
between 3 and 5 degrees above-normal. This ridging will result in
a dry northwest flow aloft that will bring shortwave disturbances
through the Mojave Desert, resulting in increased northerly
breezes Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the region. Coupled
with topographic enhancement, the lower Colorado River Valley will
experience northerly wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph, which will
result in wave heights between 1.5 and 3 feet on Lake Mohave,
with particular concern near Katherine Landing. Check the forecast
before heading out on area lakes. Heading into next weekend,
ensemble means show a pattern change, with the potential for
unsettled weather to return to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Periodic showers will continue across southern Nevada
through late tonight, with increased confidence for showers at the
terminal late afternoon through this evening. Of additional
concern is a brief window during the early to mid evening when
there is roughly a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms embedded within
these showers, which would produce erratic gusty winds,
lightning, and brief heavier rainfall. Outside of heavier showers
where visibility could drop to 6SM or less and ceilings to 3kft,
expect BKN-OVC ceilings around 5-8kft, gradually improving through
daybreak as showers diminish and move east. Gusty northerly to
north-northeasterly winds are expected this afternoon before
backing to the northwest this evening. While sporadic gusts to
15KT or greater are expected, there is a low probability for gusts
to exceed 20KT. Gusts will diminish overnight with winds becoming
light and variable Sunday morning.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Unsettled weather
continues across the region, with showers expected to continue on
at least an intermittent basis through tonight, especially along
and south of I-15. There is greater confidence for a more
organized band of showers to move across the area late afternoon
into this evening, with a 20-30% chance of embedded thunderstorms,
particularly across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. In
stronger showers/storms, ceilings 3kft or less and visibility
around 5-6SM can be expected, but otherwise, ceilings through
tonight will be around 5-10kft. Precipitation will diminish
overnight, with ceilings gradually improving through the morning.
Gusty northerly winds are expected across southern Nevada and
northwestern Arizona this afternoon and evening, with winds
becoming lighter areawide overnight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Phillipson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office