267
FXUS65 KVEF 282100
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Dry and seasonable conditions continue through Thursday.

*Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures return to the
 region late this week and continue through the weekend.

*Breezy, cool, and dry conditions return early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday.

Zonal flow aloft continues across the region, though water vapor
imagery indicates a fetch of mid-level moisture translating
eastward, yielding an increase in cloud cover. Skies will become
mostly cloudy overnight tonight, with additional influence from
moisture advecting northward through the Gulf of California and
into the Lower Colorado River Valley from TS Vance, currently
located just to the southeast of Baja California Sur. Despite the
increase in moisture, any precipitation will hold off until late
Thursday night, with dry conditions and near normal temperatures
persisting until then.

On Thursday, flow aloft will transition to southwesterly ahead of
a deepening trough off of the West Coast. The aforementioned
moisture plume associated with TS Vance will result in
precipitable water values increasing to 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for late October, resulting in a return of shower
and thunderstorm chances across Mohave County and portions of
Clark and Lincoln County late Thursday night and continuing into
Saturday. The aforementioned trough will continue deepening along
the West Coast, developing into a split flow scenario with a
secondary shortwave developing near southern California, while the
core of the trough remains over the Pacific Northwest. This
evolution will limit the winds that are generally expected with
these systems, though as the trough axes move over the region
during the weekend, precipitation chances become widespread
Saturday evening through Sunday as additional subtropical moisture
is routed into the region and precipitable water values increase
to over 4 standard deviations above normal. There remains
uncertainty in just how much precipitation will occur, with the
current forecast ranging from around a quarter to a half inch
across lower elevations, and up to an inch and a half in the
mountains and localized spots across Mohave and eastern Lincoln
Counties, where precipitation will be prolonged. Changes in the
timing and trajectory of the trough as well as characteristics of
the moisture return would result in changes to the precipitation
forecast, thus, confidence in timing and amounts is moderate.
Mountain snow is another expectation with this weekend`s system,
mainly over the Sierra and the Spring Mountains. Snow levels still
look to remain at or above 8500 feet through a majority of the
event, with snow levels dropping as precipitation moves out of the
region. Accumulations of wet snow at the peaks could be up to 4
to 6 inches, once again, dependent on overall QPF. Precipitation
is expected to quickly come to an end from west to east through
Sunday night.

As the trough departs the region early next week, a tightening
gradient on its western periphery is expected to result in breezy
to gusty conditions on Monday, especially across the southern
Great Basin. Gusty conditions are expected to diminish through
Monday evening for most, though terrain-enhanced gusts through the
Lower Colorado River Valley may persist into Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures will also stick around early next week, in spite of
shortwave ridging progged to build over the region in the wake of
the departing trough. Highs will remain around 5 degrees below
normal for most through Tuesday with dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light
easterly winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon,
increasing to 8-10KT before becoming light again by sunset. While
a sporadic higher gust to around 15KT is possible during the
afternoon, gusts are not expected to be persistent. Light winds
persist thereafter, following typical daily directional patterns
until Thursday afternoon, when winds shift to the southwest and
increase to 8-10KT. Increasing mid-level and high clouds are
expected through the forecast period, becoming SCT-BKN around
15kft Thursday morning onward. VFR conditions prevail.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain
between 5-10KT and follow typical daily directional patterns the
next 24 hours. VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid-
level and high clouds through the forecast period with bases at or
above 15kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Phillipson


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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office