022
FXUS65 KVEF 291030
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
330 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Storm chances linger in eastern Mohave County today, with things
  drying out area-wide during the second half of the week.

* Above-normal temperatures persist, with dangerous and
  potentially record-breaking temperatures beginning Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

As sufficient moisture lingers today in Mohave County, we`ll see
another another round of isolated to scattered convection this
afternoon. Best chances (20-50%) range from the Hualapai Mountains
up into the Arizona Strip. Strong outflow winds and isolated flash
flooding are possible with the more robust activity. On Thursday,
moisture starts to get scoured out of our area as high pressure
builds overhead, promoting a dry pattern that looks to last through
at least early next week.

The main weather story continues to be the heat. Ensemble guidance
remains in good agreement on the development of a ~600dm ridge later
this week, causing temperatures to rise steadily through Saturday.
Daily and monthly records are in jeopardy, particularly this weekend
when temperatures peak. Little-to-no recovery is anticipated in the
Mojave Desert overnight as lows remain 80 to 95 degrees. Widespread
major to extreme heat risk is expected across the area as a long-
duration heatwave settles in. Extreme Heat Warnings go into effect
Thursday morning and persist through Sunday evening, though if
forecast trends continue, these will need to be extended. Heat
Advisories are in effect for our higher mountain zones for the same
time period.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds with speeds under 10 knots will
become more southeasterly after sunrise this morning.
Southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots with gusts
between 15 and 20 knots by late morning. Winds will shift back to
the southwest in the afternoon. Wind gusts will drop and sustained
speeds will fall to less than 10 knots after sunset. VFR
conditions will persist through the TAF period with no
operationally significant cloud cover. Temperatures will exceed
100 degrees between 17Z and 05Z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light winds favoring
typical diurnal directional trends will continue through late
morning/early afternoon when winds across the region will become
more southerly, with 15 to 25 knot wind gusts picking up. Wind
gusts will drop off after sunset, with diurnal directional trends
resuming during the evening hours. The exception to this will be
the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where winds will favor
a westerly direction through the TAF period with westerly winds
picking up later this afternoon, continuing through the evening
hours. Isolated- to-scattered convection will be possible in
northwestern Arizona this afternoon, with erratic outflow winds,
lightning, and localized heavy rain expected to accompany these
storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through the TAF
period with no operationally significant cloud cover.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     114(1978)*   115(1978)*   116(1979)*   115(1979)*
Bishop        105(2020)*   109(2000)*   108(2020)*   108(2020)*
Needles       120(2020)    121(2020)    121(1993)*   120(1993)*
Daggett       114(2000)    113(2020)*   115(1995)*   117(1986)*
Kingman       110(2020)    112(2020)    106(2020)*   105(1918)*
Desert Rock   109(2000)    109(1996)*   109(1993)*   109(1993)*
Death Valley  127(1995)    125(2020)    127(2017)    126(1993)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2019)     88(2020)*    92(2020)*    91(2024)*
Bishop        72(2022)     67(2018)     71(2007)     71(2007)
Needles       94(2019)     94(1925)     95(1969)     92(1980)*
Daggett       86(2016)     85(2018)     84(2000)*    83(2018)*
Kingman       83(1972)     83(1914)     82(1914)*    82(2008)*
Desert Rock   81(2015)     82(2016)     83(2000)     86(2000)
Death Valley  103(2018)    103(2018)    106(1920)    100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION/CLIMATE...Stessman

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office