423
FXUS65 KPSR 262310
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 PM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will take place this week with
temperatures rebounding back toward near and above normal levels.

- Persistent high pressure will translate to dry and tranquil
conditions through at least the first few days of February.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Afternoon visible satellite imagery and RAP 500mb analysis reveals
the early stages of a ridge building over the western CONUS.
Meanwhile, clearing skies has revealed a vast area of heavy
snowfall, stretching from the Rockies all the way to New England
states. The systems that brought all that winter weather, along with
brutally cold temperatures for a lot of the country, was also
responsible for some cooler and somewhat wet conditions for the
Desert Southwest. However, with that previously mentioned high
present overhead, quiet and tranquil weather, along with a warming
trend, will be the norm as we start this new week. Afternoon highs
for the lower deserts will be right around normal today with
readings in the middle to upper 60s. By Tuesday, temperatures will
tick up a bit with values ranging in the upper 60s to lower 70s as
the ridge axis shifts towards the Great Basin and regional heights
aloft continue to increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through the rest of the workweek, a progressive pattern will
continue as a series of shortwave troughs pass well north of the
region. These troughs will have little to no affect on the weather
in our forecast area aside from bringing a few passing high clouds.
Temperatures will continue to warm by a couple degrees each
consecutive day with highs across the lower deserts pushing into the
mid 70s by the middle of this week. Deterministic guidance and
ensemble members are in agreement that a stronger area of high
pressure will eventually settle into the Western CONUS by this
weekend, resulting in a return of well above normal temperatures.
Latest NBM deterministic guidance shows forecast highs reaching the
upper 70s across the lower deserts by Friday and persisting into the
weekend. Depending on the strength of the upper-lvl ridge, highs in
the Lower 80s are not out of the question this weekend which are now
being indicated by the NBM 75th percentile for Phoenix from Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No weather issues will exist through Tuesday evening as periods of
thicker cirrus decks gradually clear. Confidence remains good that
winds will maintain an easterly component through late Tuesday
afternoon before briefly becoming W/NW around sunset.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather concerns will exist through Tuesday evening as thick
cirrus decks gradually clear. Winds will generally favor a north
component at KBLH, however may vary between NE and NW and incur
pronounced variability Tuesday afternoon. Westerly winds will be
preferred at KIPL, however extended periods of variability to nearly
calm conditions will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will prevail through at least the rest of this week into
this weekend, with daily MinRH values around 10-25% across all
districts. Overnight humidity recoveries will be around 35-55% in
most populated and agricultural areas. Elevated easterly winds winds
are expected today and tomorrow across the higher terrain areas of
southcentral AZ, with gusts up to 20-30 mph possible. Otherwise,
expect light and diurnally driven winds. Temperatures will be near
normal to begin the workweek, but are expected to warm well above
normal by the second half of the week into this weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Salerno

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office