468
FXUS66 KLOX 291546
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
846 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...29/232 AM.

Seasonably warm temperatures today will shift to dangerously hot
by Friday through the weekend as the next heat wave arrives. Some
cooling is expected next week though temperatures will remain
above normal. Dangerous surf conditions are expected at beaches
this week south of Point Conception due swells from a tropical
storm west of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...29/845 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is well on-track, and no changes have been made to
the ongoing forecast.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is making a return along many coastal areas this
morning as weak troughing develops over the West Coast. However,
temperatures will remain seasonably warm today and tomorrow
before high pressure over Arizona expands west Friday and through
the weekend. Models have been very consistent over the last week
showing 500mb heights rising to 600dam (at or above the 99th
percentile) over the interior California deserts by Saturday and
possibly as far west as the coast. The extreme pressure being
exerted from aloft will force temperatures at the surface to rise
to around 10 degrees above normal in many areas, resulting in
significant heat stress, especially in areas that have limited or
no access to cooling sources. Current forecast highs are near or
exceeding record temperatures in many areas, especially Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures along the Central Coast are cooler
compared to other areas but even there forecasts are close to or
exceeding daily records.

One positive aspect is that humidities have been decreasing as
tropical moisture remains east and south of the area. This is
allowing overnight temperatures overnight to cool a few degrees,
providing some relief. However models are strongly suggesting
increasing moisture aloft later this week and weekend during the
peak of the heat wave, which will further exacerbate the heat
stress over the area.

A large south swell from Hurricane Genevieve will further enhance
large wave and potentially deadly rip currents for some area
beaches. See Beaches discussion below and associated coastal
hazard products for details.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/400 AM.

A slow cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday though
temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above normal and
increasing moisture aloft will limit overnight cooling and keep
humidities higher than normal. And in addition, high pressure
aloft will continue to dominate the weather pattern along the West
coast all of next week, meaning highs will remain above normal
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...29/1200Z.

At 1150Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 4200 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
Celsius.

For 12Z TAFs, high confidence in KPRB, and KPMD and KWJF. Low
to moderate confidence elsewhere as timing of return of CIG/VSBY
restrictions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight
category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. There
is a 30% chance that MVFR CIGs will return by 08z, increasing to
80% by 11z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF with a 60-80% chance of
MVFR cigs possible after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/814 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Local gusts to 35 knots will affect the outer waters
through around midnight. Otherwise, through Sunday, high
confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds and seas. There is also a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds
across western sections of PZZ670/673 Wednesday evening.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Sunday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Sunday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 60-80% chance of SCA
level winds through late tonight then a 30-50% chance of SCA
level winds Wednesday through Sunday in the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Seas are expected to hover near 8-10 feet across the waters away
from the coasts much of the week. There is a steep (short period)
NW swell/wind wave from the persistent winds. In addition, a
southerly swell from Hurricane Genevieve will continue across the
coastal waters through this weekend. This south swell may impact
south facing harbors, including Port San Luis.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zones
      38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to
      3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday afternoon
      for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM PDT Sunday
      for zones 341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM PDT
      Sunday for zone 380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM
      PDT Sunday for zones 381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Cohen
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...RAT/CC
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office